Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency markets have been fluctuating between a safe-haven and risk asset analogy for quite some time now. However, the traders sentiments remain uncertain now as US is still on the losing side of the battle against Coronavirus.
The number of Coronavirus cases in the US have been surging since last week. Even Donald Trump, the President of the U.S. noted in his address yesterday that the number of deaths is likely to peak within the next two weeks. U.S. is already reporting more than 2,500 deaths with 142,224 cases reported officially.
Nevertheless, the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Government under Trump have been strongly trying to avoid recession with large economic stimulus. Last week, the Gov. passed a $2.2 trillion emergency fund to aid its citizens with the total Quantitative Easing now measuring $6 trillion.
Bottom In or Bottoming?
During the last financial crisis in 2008, the initial shock in September 2007 failed to find a bottom, as the bear markets extended to the next year until March.
George Goncalves, prominent financial analyst suggests that the current trends are outpacing the markets in 2008-09, and the price actions which earlier took months to shape are now occurring within weeks. He tweeted,
WEEKs=MONTHs Comparison: History doesn’t have to repeat (and policymakers are surely trying to prevent it) but it can rhyme. In a continuation of the prior 2 charts, below I blend them, but compare wkly vs mthly data. If we track 08-09, the bottom is still at least a month away.
Last week, the price action on the stock markets suggested that the bulls might be getting to action again. However, many investors predict further downfall in price suspecting it only as a relief bounce.
Bitcoin Caught between the US and Chinese trends?
The current market is still under the influence of the Coronavirus, the black swan event which seems to have invalidated most conceptions about the correlation between markets. Josh Rager, a popular derivatives and crypto trader tweeted,
S&P Futures and Bitcoin give mini pump while Gold gives mini dump
Always fun to see how all assets move with one another and long week ahead
The PA in these assets in the next two weeks will be critical in establishing short to mid-term trends.
Moreover, during 2009, the first signs of revival or investment in the economy began with risk-off assets like Gold and Silver. The decoupling between stock and commodity markets was the first sign was returning investor activity from their cash positions.
Furthermore, the Chinese economy is now beginning to recover from the impacts of the virus. This could be bullish for Bitcoin as well. Anondran, a prominent crypto analyst and trader tweeted,
Bitcoin’s price action in April is going to be a battle between Chinese Bulls and American Bears, since China is almost back to normal and US is only going to get worse on the COVID situation.
Do you think that the Bottom in Bitcoin is in? Please share your views with us.