In yesterday’s bitcoin price analysis, we were all about risk management. The action we had seen over the duration of the week left us a little jittery, and we were concerned that without tight risk management we might get caught on the wrong end of a sharp movement and, in turn, an irreparable loss. As it turned out, things went pretty well for us, and we managed to pick up a few dollars’ profit on our intrarange plays. Things weren’t as volatile as we expected, and this lack of volatility looks to have filtered through into today’s action. We are pretty much range bound, which means that things today have been pretty flat as far as getting into any positions is concerned. Having said this, oftentimes when we get this sort of sideways momentum, it is illustrative of price “winding up” for a big move. With this in mind, we still need to maintain a tight risk profile, but can perhaps be a little more aggressive with our medium to long term targets. Whatever happens, we should be able to draw a profit from this evening’s and tonight’s action so long as our levels are accurate.
So, as we head into the latter half of the European session today (Thursday), let’s take a look at where we are looking to get in and out of the markets, and try to define some risk management parameters to boot.
As ever, take a quick look at the chart to get an idea of our key levels going forward.
As you can see from the chart, and in accordance with what we have already discussed, price has remained constrained within yesterday’s range. As such, the range that we defined in yesterday’s analysis remains the one to watch throughout this evenings session. Specifically, in term support at 242.42 and resistance at 434 flat.
We are currently trading a little closer to the latter than the former, so let’s have a look at our resistance based entries first.
According to our breakout strategy, if we break above (and close above) in term resistance at 434 flat, we will enter a long position towards an aggressive upside target of 447 flat – the week’s highs. A stop loss somewhere in the region of 430 flat helps us to maintain a positive risk reward profile on the trade, while still giving us plenty of room to avoid the chop out. For a more conservative target, 440 looks good.
If we correct from this level, our intrarange will put us short towards support, with a stop at 436 defining our risk.
Looking at support, a close below 424.42 will put us short towards an initial downside target of 418. A stop on this one around 426 keeps things attractive from a risk management perspective, giving us an approximate two to one risk reward profile.
On the intrarange side of things, a bounce from support will put us long towards resistance, with a stop just below (somewhere in the region of 418) defining our risk and ensuring we are taken out of the trade on a bias reversal.
Charts courtesy of Trading View