Bitcoin Price Technical Analysis for 06/03/2016 – Another Breakout Looming?

Bitcoin Price Key Highlights

  • Bitcoin price has been stuck in consolidation once more, as traders are waiting for more directional clues.
  • Today’s top-tier events and potential profit-taking ahead of the weekend could spur stronger moves.
  • Price has formed higher lows on the 1-hour time frame and found resistance around $550, creating a short-term ascending triangle pattern.

Bitcoin price might be in for another sharp breakout since it is approaching the peak of its short-term triangle consolidation pattern.

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Technical Indicators Signals

The 100 SMA is above the 200 SMA on the 1-hour time frame, suggesting that the path of least resistance is to the upside. In that case, a candle closing past the $550 triangle top could lead to another rally to the latest highs at $600.

However, the gap between the moving averages is narrowing so a downward crossover could be imminent. If that happens, bears could take its as a cue to push bitcoin price below the triangle support at $545, allowing the selloff to resume.

Stochastic is on the move up but is nearing the overbought zone, hinting that bullish pressure could run out soon. Similarly, RSI is heading north so bitcoin price could still follow suit, but near-term resistance is also located at the 100 SMA dynamic inflection point.


Market Events

Yesterday’s top-tier financial market events namely the OPEC meeting and the ECB interest rate decision failed to trigger a reaction from bitcoin price, which means that traders are being more discerning when it comes to catalysts.

For today, the NFP report due from the US might be a market-mover, as this would set the tone for upcoming Fed decisions. Recall that policymakers, including Fed Chairperson Yellen, have hinted at a potential interest rate hike in the coming months and strong jobs data could revive tightening expectations for June.

On the other hand, a weaker than expected read could lead investors to delay rate hike expectations and dump the dollar in favor of bitcoin, triggering an upside breakout from the triangle. Analysts are expecting to see a 159K rise in hiring and a 0.2% uptick in average hourly earnings.

Charts from SimpleFX

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