September 20, 2017

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Weekly Cryptocurrency Market Outlook March 20




BTCManager’s Weekly Cryptocurrency Outlook highlights the price action and technical indicators on a long-term basis to identify the best opportunities in the largest cryptocurrencies, such as bitcoin, ether, and others.

BTC-USD (Bitstamp)

The weekly price action below shows the large panic over the weekend, where BTC-USD dropped to a low of $944.36, however, buyers were able to reclaim the $1000 handle by the end of the week. The base line (red) held as support, providing some hope for bulls, however, the price has crossed below the conversion line (blue), giving us the first bearish signal. Also, notice that the Awesome Oscillator has moved lower and changed color from green to red. Therefore, we set limit sell orders just below $944.36, with a target of the fractal support at $751.34.


However, notice that the lagging line (purple) seems to be forming a trough, which if confirmed, indicates a bottom in the market at $1017.97. Therefore, this will be a key support level going forward. We could also set limit buy orders just below $1017.97 with a target of the recent low at $944.36.

On the other hand, to point toward more gains, BTC-USD needs to close the week higher than the conversion line. That is, by March 27, the price of bitcoin needs to be higher than $1115.74 for a bullish outlook. Otherwise, the conversion line will hold as resistance, potentially start to trend downward, and push the price closer to the Ichimoku cloud.

ETH-USD (Kraken)

The daily chart below shows that ETH-USD has completed a retrace, finding support just above the 38.2 percent Fibonacci retracement level and has continued higher, trading at $43.60 at the time of writing. Also, notice that a fractal buy level now looks to be forming at $30.30 (March 18 low), which will provide an impetus for renewed upward momentum.

The Fibonacci extension levels indicate that immediate support lies at $43.32, and we could see another test of $30 if the market moves below this level. However, at the time of writing, the market has broken above $43.32 and now looks to tend toward the all-time high at $51.90.

The structure of the market suggests that if $51.90 is breached, buyers in the market will look to target the first Fibonacci extension level, which lies at $74.35. Therefore, we look to place limit buy orders at $52.00 with a target of $74.25. Alternatively, we can enter the uptrend near the immediate support at $43.32 with targets at $51.80 and $74.25.

The weekly chart below shows the longer-term outlook. A failure to move above $51.90 by April 3 will see a fractal sell level form and point to a change in momentum. However, a break above $51.90 before April 3 will invalidate the fractal resistance that is forming and point to further gains.

Notice that the conversion line is flat this week, suggesting short-term equilibrium around $31.14. The conversion line should also offer support and buy orders are suggested if the market tests $31.14. However, a weekly close below $31.14 will invalidate the bullish outlook, as this will give the first indication that the uptrend is reversing.

However, the large jump in volumes on the Kraken exchange suggest that Ether’s appreciation will continue. Furthermore, notice that both the green Ichimoku cloud projected forward and Awesome Oscillator are trending higher, favoring bulls in the market.

DASH-USD (Poloniex)

The weekly price action below shows that DASH-USD continued to post fresh highs, reaching a peak at $117.80. However, sellers fought back toward the end of the week, bringing the week’s close down to around $105. Since we have a fresh high, we can use the Fibonacci retracement and extensions to determine future levels of support and resistance. For example, a move below $91.94 will confirm a reversal of the upward trend, with potential targets at $63.00, $50.07, and $30.06, which are the 50, 38.2, and 23.6 percent Fibonacci retracement levels respectively. We set limit sell orders at $91.84.

However, a break above $117.80 will invalidate the fractal sell level that is forming and point to further gains.

XMR-USD (Poloniex)

Monero surged higher last week, posting a fresh high at $25.10. Volumes are also rising week on week, supporting the price action. Therefore, XMR-USD will continue to tend toward the Fibonacci extension level at $27.28.
Notice that the conversion line has moved higher again for this week, indicating a strong likelihood of appreciation. If the market manages to break the Fibonacci extension level at $27.28, then this will open up the second extension level at $41.54.

Notice that the Awesome Oscillator is moving higher and remains green, suggesting bullish momentum will dominate over the next week or two. In the event of a downturn, the conversion line will provide support at $18.21.

ETC-USD (Poloniex)

As ether continues to surge, so does ether classic, which attempted to break the $2.00 psychological level but was pushed lower, currently trading at $1.92. A buy signal were triggered last week, outlined in our previous cryptocurrency outlook, as the market breached the fractal resistance at $1.509. Another factor supporting a bullish outlook for ETC-USD is that last week saw the greatest volume in relation to every week of ETC’s history. This should attract more interest in the weeks to come and foretells further gains for ETC-USD.

Resistances lie at $2.18 and $2.847, serving as potential targets for buyers. On the other hand, a weekly close below the conversion line, that is below $1.6778 will point to a bearish outlook.

Also, last week saw the beginning of the Awesome Oscillator, with the indicator signaling bullish momentum as the oscillator is green and above zero. This week, the indicator moves higher, suggesting a greater likelihood of continued bullish momentum.

XEM-BTC (Poloniex)

XEM-BTC has reached our initial target and returned to long-term equilibrium. On January 25, we suggested buying XEM for the long run, with the trade setup shown below. A close above the conversion line and switch in the color of the Awesome Oscillator gave the signal that bears were losing control and buyers would start to dominate.

The weekly chart below shows the curent situation for XEM-BTC. Last week’s price action managed to close above the Ichimoku cloud, providing another bullish signal. Therefore, buy positions should look to enter around 0.00001500 and target the all-time high at 0.00002798. Bullish momentum will dominate over the long term, as indicated by the Awesome Oscillator, which has switched to positive territory and moves higher. Also, the conversion line is moving higher above the base line.

Volumes are rising, supporting the higher market price and suggests that further appreciation in the altcoin should be anticipated. The Ichimoku cloud will now provide support and could be an optimal zone to go long on XEM-BTC. 

Finally, the lagging line (purple) moves above the previous price action, providing another bullish signal. The only signal that has not occured yet is the change in the color of the cloud. However, since the market is now above the Ichimoku cloud, we can safely say that buyers are in control and seller dominance has faded. The conversion line offers support around 0.00001000. Only a weekly close below 0.0000100 will invalidate the long-term bullish outlook.

REP-BTC (Poloniex)

The weekly chart below shows that the bottom in the market is confirmed, with the price action closing above the conversion line on March 13, signaling further gains for REP. Last week buyers dominated, with the 0.0080 handle reached. We expect REP-BTC to continue higher and tend toward the psychological resistance at 0.0100. Notice that volumes have been rising over the past four weeks, suggesting that the market will continue higher.

A weekly close below the conversion line at 0.0063 will invalidate the bullish outlook and will necessitate short positions, with an initial target at 0.0037, the most recent fractal support. 



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